Weather Models

Weather Models

Weather Models Guide

Your cheat sheet for wildfire weather forecasts


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Why This Matters

Weather drives fire behavior. Wind, temperature, humidity, precipitation—four numbers that determine if a fire crawls or explodes.
The problem? Fire services waste hours copy-pasting data from multiple websites into PowerPoint.
The solution? Know which model to trust, when. Then let Wildflyer aggregate it for you.


The Models You Need to Know

For TODAY (0–48 hours)

→ AROME or ICON-D2
What
Why
Resolution: 1–2 km
Sees valleys, slopes, neighborhoods
Updates: Hourly (ICON-D2) or 1-2x/day (AROME)
Fresh data for active operations
Best for
Local operations, terrain effects, helicopter planning
Pro tip: In mountains, always use high-res models. They "see" the terrain.


For THIS WEEK (3–7 days)

→ ECMWF HRES, ICON Europe, or ARPÈGE
Model
Resolution
Sweet Spot
ECMWF HRES
9 km
World's best medium-range model
ICON Europe
7 km
Good for Central Europe
ARPÈGE
10 km
Reliable for France
Pro tip: ECMWF HRES costs money but it's worth it. Consistently ranks #1 in accuracy.


For NEXT WEEK+ (7–16 days)

→ ECMWF IFS or GFS
  • ECMWF IFS: 7–10 days, gold standard
  • GFS: Up to 16 days, good for trends (not specifics)
Pro tip: Beyond 7 days, look for patterns, not precise forecasts.


For PAST EVENTS

→ ERA5
Hourly data since 1979. Essential for:
  • After-action reviews
  • "What were conditions during that fire?"
  • Seasonal analysis and training


Key Comparisons

Resolution = Detail

Resolution
What It Sees
Models
1–3 km
Valleys, neighborhoods
AROME, ICON-D2
7–10 km
Towns, regions
ICON Europe, ECMWF HRES
25 km
Provinces, trends
GFS, ECMWF IFS



Update Frequency

How Often
Models
Use When
Hourly
ICON-D2, HARMONIE
Conditions changing fast
4x/day
ICON Europe, GFS
Regular monitoring
2x/day
ECMWF HRES, ECMWF IFS
Strategic planning


Model Limitations

All Models Get Worse Over Time

Timeframe
Trust Level
0–12 hours
Very reliable
12–48 hours
Reliable
3–5 days
Good
6–10 days
Moderate
11–16 days
Trends only

Resolution Matters Most in Complex Terrain

In flat areas? Any model works fine.
In mountains? Always use high-res (AROME, ICON-D2). A 25 km model can't see a 5 km valley.

No Model is Perfect

Weather is chaotic. Always:
  • Compare multiple models
  • Monitor updates
  • Trust ground observations over models


All Available Models

European High-Resolution

Model
Country
Resolution
Coverage
AROME
France
1.3 km
France + neighbors
ICON-D2
Germany
2.2 km
Central Europe
HARMONIE
Netherlands
2.5 km
Benelux
HARMONIE
Denmark
2.5 km
Nordic region

European Regional

Model
Resolution
Range
ECMWF HRES
9 km
10 days
ICON Europe
7 km
5 days
ARPÈGE
10 km
7 days

Global

Model
Country
Resolution
Range
ECMWF IFS
EU
25 km
10 days
GFS
USA
13–25 km
16 days
ICON Global
Germany
13 km
10 days
GEM
Canada
25 km
10 days
UKMO
UK
10 km
10 days


Learn More

Want deeper details? Check out these resources:

Technical Documentation

 ECMWF Documentation Deep dive into the gold standard
 DWD ICON Information Learn about Germany's ICON model
 Météo-France AROME France's high-resolution model details


Glossary

Resolution – Size of grid cells (smaller = more detail)Model run – When the model calculates new forecastsForecast range – How far ahead it predictsEnsemble – Multiple forecasts to show uncertaintyReanalysis – Historical data combining observations + models


Questions?

Understanding weather models shouldn't require a PhD. If something's unclear, let us know.
Remember: Models are tools, not truth. Use multiple sources, trust your experience, and stay safe out there.

Last updated: February 2026